Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

摘要

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 spaceweather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government andcommercial end users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are oneof its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms; forecastsfor each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 hours, and full-diskforecasts for the next four days. Here the forecasting process is described indetail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methodscommonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verificationavailable for operational flare forecasting use is also described. Theinfluence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecastsoutperforming original model results, and forecasting skill decreasing overlonger forecast lead times.